Once, until a century ago, Korea was a hermit kingdom. The peninsula has now been divided into two nations: North and South Korea. They are not nice neighbors. On the contrary, they are each other’s archenemies. The border between the Koreas is the most militarized zone in the world. Since 1953, the 38th parallel has formed the border where hundreds of thousands of soldiers are stationed on both sides at a short distance from each other. No one knows how this conflict will ultimately end, although a review of recent history and the state of defense provides some insight. The countries are very different. South Korea is benefiting from the economic boost in Southeast Asia and is conquering the world with companies such as Samsung, LG and Daewoo. The brothers in the North adhere to a variant of communism, live in a dictatorship and are dirt poor. South Koreans are very prosperous and now live in a democracy.
Source: NormanEinstein, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA-3.0)
Japanese colony
Until the 19th century, Korea was an introverted state. It was called a hermit kingdom. In 1910, the Japanese annexed the peninsula and it became a colony of Japan. It would remain Japanese until the end of World War II when the Japanese surrendered in August 1945.
Korean War
In 1950, the superpowers China, the Soviet Union and the United States and their allies faced each other in the Korean War. It became a bloody international war that left more than 2 million dead. In 1953 the countries decided on a ceasefire. To date (2013), this situation applies and there is no peace treaty (but a non-aggression pact). Moreover, in July 1953, a ceasefire line was drawn along the 38th parallel, dividing the peninsula into North Korea and South Korea.
Incidents in a row
Attack on president
In the late 1960s, tensions between the Koreas increased. North Korea attempted an assassination attempt on South Korean President Park Chung-hee in 1968. This attempt fails, but six years later Chung-hee’s wife is killed in a similar attack. In 1968, the North Korean Navy captured an American spy ship with 82 crew members. They are not released until eleven months later. Finally, in 1969, the North Koreans shot down an American spy plane, killing 31.
Attack on delegation
1983: A North Korean attack on a South Korean government delegation in the Burmese capital Rangoon kills 21 people.
Bomb in passenger plane
In 1987, North Korea bombed a Korean Air passenger plane. The explosion takes place over the sea and all 115 people on board are killed.
Jimmy Carter
In 1994, the US and North Korea were at war because North Korea threatened to possess and possibly deploy nuclear weapons. Former President Jimmy Carter travels to the North Korean capital Pyongyang to mediate. He knows how to calm people down.
Relaxation
Around 2000 there was some tension between the Koreas. There is a meeting between the two leaders in Pyongyang where agreements are made about family visits and investments in a North Korean industrial park. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright also visited North Korea in 2000.
Launch rockets
From 2006 onwards things started to go wrong again. The impetus for the escalation is the North Korean launch of ballistic missiles. An underground nuclear test will follow in October 2006. In 2009, North Korea launched a long-range missile and expelled all international UN inspectors. The country is also conducting a second underground nuclear test. In 2010, North Korea sank a South Korean ship with a torpedo, killing 46.
Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong-il died in 2011 and his son, the then 28-year-old Kim Jung-un, succeeded him. The world is hoping for relaxation and there seem to be signs in that direction. But in December 2011, North Korea launched a long-range rocket into space. The hope for relaxation is thus gone.
Rising tensions in 2013
In February 2013, North Korea conducted a new nuclear test and terminated the non-aggression pact with South Korea. It puts the armed forces on alert. The US prepares the anti-missile shield and sends Stealth fighter planes.
Showdown
North Korea has the largest army in terms of troops. The country has the fourth largest army in the world with 1.2 million troops. That’s huge for a country with 24 million inhabitants. Defense costs a quarter of the national income. With 655,000 troops, South Korea is number six in the world rankings of military powers.
North Korea has more aircraft than South Korea. At the same time, they are old Russian and Chinese aircraft from the 1960s. This applies to all their equipment. The South Koreans may have fewer aircraft than Kim Jong-un, but they do have the most modern equipment. According to experts, South Korea will win, especially with the help of the Americans.
The North Koreans have missiles with which they can inflict significant damage on the South Koreans. The Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6 are a type of Scud missiles with a range of approximately 700 kilometers. Furthermore, according to Western experts, the North Koreans probably have significant stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. Experts are still unsure whether North Korea has nuclear missiles. What is certain is that they have the ingredients at home. However, the technological knowledge is probably not yet sufficient. But experts do not all agree on this either.
Huge damage
Although South Korea would win an armed conflict, according to experts, the damage from a war would be enormous. In the 1990s, an American admiral told then-president Clinton what the damage would be from a Korean war. It would cost a million lives and the US alone $100 billion. Not an attractive prospect.