Thomas Robert Malthus published his first essay ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’ more than two hundred years ago. It has sparked debate and led to many follow-up theories. The ‘pessimist’ and his theory were thought to have been debunked a number of decades ago, but doubt reappears again and again and Malthus’ ideas always continue to play a role in philosophical, economic and political circles.
Main features of the theory
‘Malthus’ theory has a structure that has been seen by many critics as ‘too basic’ and ‘unrealistic’. The theory would only remain valid if no changes took place and no technological progress was made. According to critics, innovative technology has never been taken into account. ‘Malthus’ essay, An Essay on the Principle of Population, was written in the year 1798. The theory states that global population growth would grow faster than food capacity. The food capacity would not be able to meet the demand for food. There simply wouldn’t be enough bread on the table. People will suffer from hunger, disease, and war would be necessary to bring the population back up to food capacity. A so-called natural balance. A very pessimistic doomsday scenario.
Second publication
In 1803 Malthus published a second essay and a slightly milder one. Written at a historic turning point in history, standing on the cusp of technological developments that would change the world forever, Malthus published the following. ‘One must take a preventive step regarding the birth of offspring, especially those who know that they cannot provide their offspring with a clean existence. Only then will it be possible to maintain food capacity to feed our mouths.’
Misconception
Several decades after the last publication of this article, critics had nothing good to say about this theory. With the knowledge of the time and a few technological developments later, the theory was razed to the ground. The theory did not take into account the possibility of faster production of food. For example, inventions that could make crops grow faster.
Stagnation in population growth
Malthus leaves no doubt in any publication that population growth would continue to grow exponentially. This has also proven to be a misconception. In Europe, due to a higher level of prosperity (contrary to Malthus’ theory), a stagnation in population growth has been observed. The expectation of CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics), among others, is that this will continue in the coming decades. The only reason that there will be growth within a few decades is because of immigration.
Now that a huge number of people in the world are still suffering from hunger, and this number appears to be growing, theory will once again play a role in devising solutions to this problem. Malthus has played an important role and his pessimism has proven to be the trigger for the discussion about tackling hunger and how to continue to increase food capacity.